HBO just released the official Game of Thrones Season 8 trailer and the smell of blood is in the air. Even a two minute clip confirms what Thrones fans already know: some of your favorite characters are probably going to die. Actually, most of your favorite characters are probably going to die. That’s just how this show works, especially with an unstoppable army of undead soldiers bearing down on Westeros.
What’s the likelihood of survival for each main character? We can’t be entirely sure until April 14. Using clues from the trailer and past seasons, however, we can make some guesses.
We see him in the trailer with his signature concerned face, looking regal with his full-fox scarf and hamming it up with Dany. There’s some self-sacrifice in play here, but Thrones is essentially based on Jon Snow’s character arc. Chance of Survival: 96 percent.
Dany’s an odds-on favorite to fulfill her destiny as queen of the Seven Kingdoms (alongside Jon). Chances are she reaches the end of Season 8. But her possibly pregnancy dings those odds a bit—as the Red Wedding taught us, unplanned Stark pregnancies can be bad omens. Chance of Survival: 90 percent.
Cersei is arguably the most despised surviving character. There’s little doubt she’s going to pay heavily for her sins, which are many. The trailer offers up a shot of her tearing up as she reaches for wine, which seems apropos of what’s to come. It’ll be a shocker if she makes it out alive. Chance of Survival: 2 percent.
Everybody loves Peter Dinklage and that doesn’t bode well for his GOT character. Tyrion’s death will upset a lot of fans. Considering the show’s inherent sadism, his death is probably inevitable. Chance of Survival: 40 percent.
Jamie’s redemption arc is strong, and leaving Cersei should play well for him karmically. But his sins are also numerous. As a general in the midst of battle, odds are strong he pays for them with his life. Chance of Survival: 25 percent.
Arya’s a seasoned warrior, perhaps the most lethal killer in all of Westeros—except for the Night King and his undead army, of course. She opens the trailer running from something, her face bloodied and afraid. But her resourcefulness keeps her odds respectable. Chance of Survival: 65 percent.
Killing Sansa would be an especially cruel end for a character with an especially cruel story. Then again, this is Thrones. Shocking deaths are a feature, not a bug. But since she won’t be fighting anything other than the show’s natural cruelty, there’s a fair chance Sansa finds her way to the end of Season 8 mostly unscathed. Chance of Survival: 73 percent.
Depending how how much you buy into the Night King theories, there’s a chance Bran’s already dead. Or he might be the key to defeating the White Walkers. That keeps his odds high, but we need to factor in his lack of mobility and the possibility that the show ends with the White Walkers triumphing over the people and dragons we care about. Chance of Survival: 70 percent.
Samwell Tarly (& Gilly & Little Sam)
Sam is essentially the universe’s allegory for George R.R. Martin, so it’s likely he’ll survive to tell the tale of the final war. Chance of Survival: 99 percent.
In the trailer, Varys cowers in the Winterfell dungeons. He’ll be away from the fray, but it’s not looking great for the Spider. Chance of Survival: 33 percent.
Jorah’s a total badass but The Night King isn’t rewarding heroes out here. Chance of Survival: 20 percent.
Gendry is a dark horse to wind up on the Iron Throne. It would be a shame for the showrunners to re-develop his character in Season 7 only to kill him off in Season 8. But that also totally sounds like something they’d do. Chance of Survival: 30 percent.
Drogon & Rhaegal
Dany’s already lost one dragon. There’s a decent chance she loses another in the fighting, but the odds of her losing both are infinitesimal—especially as she and Jon ride them. Having your fate tethered to the two main characters in the show is a good sign. Chances of Survival: 85 percent
Sandor Clegane (The Hound)
The Hound went from cold-blooded killer to…morally righteous killer. Talk about redemption. But he’ll be in the middle of the fighting, which damage his survival odds. Hopefully we get the Clegane Bowl we’ve all been clamoring for. Chance of Survival: 18 percent.
Gregor Clegane (The Mountain)
Technically the Mountain isn’t really alive, but there’s virtually no chance he’s making it out of Season 8. Hopefully his death occurs at the hands of the Hound in that longed-for Clegane Bowl. Chance of Survival: 0.8 percent.
He’s not in the trailer, but Theon’s somehow still alive going into the final season. It’s hard to imagine he’ll stay alive, though. His storyline has been dead for three seasons—it’d be best to put him (and us) out of his misery. Chance of Survival: 16 percent.
Someone on the fringes of the show’s purview is always a toss-up, but given her importance as Dany’s right hand woman, Missandei’s odds are decent. Chance of Survival: 64 percent.
Things don’t look as good for Missandei’s eunuch lover. He’s the leader of the Unsullied army and will find himself in the middle of fighting a bunch of skeleton warriors. His ties to Missandei help his odds, but not much. Chance of Survival: 21 percent.
Brienne of Tarth
Brienne is a great warrior, but this feels like another out-of-nowhere death that fans gripe about for years to come. Chance of Survival: 29 percent.
Let’s face it—Tormund should’ve died during Viserion’s icy return to The Wall at the end of Season 7. And as much as we’d all love to see him survive and live his truth with Brienne, he feels destined to die fighting the White Walkers. Chance of Survival: 8 percent.
This dude has died so many times it feels like he shouldn’t be on the list. His flaming sword gives him a puncher’s chance against the army of the dead. But still, he’s not vital enough to make it. Chance of Survival: 7 percent.
Pod the sex god has been working on his fighting skills but he’s still not very good. And Season 8 is not an ideal time to be not very good at fighting. Chance of Survival: 12 percent.
Qyburn deserves to die as much as anyone, and almost definitely will. They can’t let this creep make it through. Chance of Survival: 1 percent.