Betting on Biden’s VP

Joe Biden has a decision to make. We’ve been waiting on it for weeks, and for all we know it’s already been made. Whomever the former Vice President taps to run as his own VP will likely have enormous influence on his presidential campaign/potential administration and likely take up the Democratic Party mantle in 2024 and beyond.

Though gambling is on the backburner during the pandemic, Biden has plenty of options to choose from and the diluted VP field presents an interesting opportunity. We consulted PredictIt’s betting markets to assess each candidate’s value and make our picks.

Note: PredictIt prices used are accurate as of 5/20/20

Kamala Harris, 33¢
Value: Strong

Harris is the frontrunner at the moment, and while you usually don’t get good value betting the odds-on favorite, Biden’s potential VP field is wide enough that all the numbers are diluted. If Biden decides to hone in on Trump’s corruption, Harris’ well-chronicled (and somewhat sketchy) background as a former state attorney general gives her a solid chance.

Amy Klobuchar, 17¢
Value: Fair

Klobuchar doesn’t bring a ton to the table besides name recognition. The moderate voters she appeals to are already under Biden’s tent and her history as a prosecutor isn’t as highlighted as Harris’.

Elizabeth Warren, 12¢
Value: Fair

Warren probably appeals to the most voters within the Democratic Party, as she’s polled the highest among potential VP picks. But she’s probably the only candidate big Biden donors have actively lobbied against (for obvious reasons). That suppresses her value, but 13¢ is still a good price.

Gretchen Whitmer, 8¢
Value: Strong

Whitmer seems like the strongest possibility that hasn’t gotten a ton of buzz. She doesn’t have the name recognition of a former presidential candidate, but Biden clearly respects her (in fact, Whitmer was the first politician Biden “interviewed” on his not-so-great podcast). She’s also built up her national profile as a strong governor during the COVID-19 pandemic. Getting her in the single digits could be a steal.

Stacey Abrams, 8¢
Value: Low

Abrams came in with a lot of buzz but has cooled off considerably. She doesn’t boast much experience and has come under fire for openly campaigning for the VP slot. After Biden seemingly trolled her on live television, her chances seem even lower than her price.

Michelle Obama, 5¢
Value: Screw it, why not?

Shock value potential alone gives the former First Lady some decent value. It’s an enormous longshot—why on earth would the Obamas want to get back into electoral politics?—but can’t be completely ruled out. It’s hard to think of someone in the Democratic Party with a higher approval rating than Michelle Obama. I mean, five cents? This is the kind of bet you can easily talk yourself into making after a cocktail or two.